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Cubszone.com | Chicago Cubs News, cubs Scores, Game Recaps & Commentary - Traditionally, around the All-Star break is the time where teams wind up activating guys off the disabled list, consider promoting prospects and generally look to solidify their 25-man rosters heading into the second half.
This year is no exception. Players like Josh Johnson (Tommy John surgery) are coming off the DL, David Price is biding his time in Double-A and the Brewers have added a hefty lefty to form perhaps baseball's best 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. This week we'll look at a few pitchers coming off the DL, examine baseball's top pitching prospects who have a chance at seeing the big leagues later this year and speculate on which pitchers could be on the market and the resulting fantasy implications.From Disabled to Enabled?
Josh Johnson, Florida - Johnson will return to the mound for the first time since July 2, 2007, this Thursday as he gets the nod against the Dodgers. While rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Johnson had a 3.68 ERA in five minor league starts, showing surprising command with a 23:5 K:BB in 29 1/3 innings. While we fully expect Johnson to experience the normal highs and lows faced by Tommy John survivors, his progress has been encouraging. Johnson's upside (career 3.50 ERA, 7.6 K/9) makes him worth watching, but he's probably best targeted in keeper leagues by owners willing to wait until sometime in 2009 for him to be 100 percent.
Micah Owings, Arizona - A lower back injury has prevented Owings from starting since June 27, but he's expected to get the nod Wednesday. After starting the year 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA, Owings is 2-7 with a 6.21 ERA, though I'm somewhat optimistic given his 7.7 K/9 during that poor run. Max Scherzer is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, but if he recovers quickly, Owings' job could be in jeopardy if his results don't start matching his peripherals.
Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Sanchez had surgery for a torn labrum in June 2007, and it appears he's nearing a return. Sanchez, of course, gained notoriety for both his inclusion in the Hanley Ramirez trade and especially for the no-hitter as a rookie, but that was two years ago. Even in his rookie year, Sanchez's 2.83 ERA came with a very low BABIP (.245), mediocre 73:46 K:BB and a 5.8 K/9. Toss in labrum surgery that could affect his velocity, and we're much more optimistic on teammate's Josh Johnson's recovery than Sanchez's. Speculate on Sanchez in keeper leagues, but don't expect much in 2008.
Mike Hampton, Atlanta - Space prevents me from detailing Hampton's medical history, but suffice to say, it's lengthy. Hampton hasn't pitched in a major league game since 2005 and even that year, it was for just 12 starts. He really hasn't been relevant from a fantasy perspective since 2000, his free-agent year that led to perhaps the worst contract in baseball history (eight years, $121 million), so it's hard to get too excited about his five scoreless innings in High-A recently.
Chris Carpenter, St. Louis - Like Josh Johnson above, Carpenter underwent Tommy John surgery last July, but he's a little further behind and looking at an August return, at best. Carpenter had a setback in May, but appears back on track, though it's hard to see the Cardinals rushing him back if he's not 100 percent healthy. St. Louis is chasing the Cubs in the NL Central with the Brewers close behind, but with the huge contract extension doled out to Carpenter before last year, look for the Cardinals to be very careful with their investment. At some point, I think he'll be shut down.
Chris Young, San Diego - Scary skull fracture injury and a resulting surgery to repair a deviated septum likely have Young out until late July. You figure his arm will be fine once he's ready to return, but his psyche? To be determined. Given his history, Young is certainly worth owning in most leagues, but given that he wasn't pitching all that well (4.50 ERA and 30 BB in 51 innings) before the injury, success is by no means guaranteed.
Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers - Out since June 15 with shoulder tendinitis, Penny experienced some soreness in a recent simulated game, so he's expected to be out through the All-Star break. Given that no MRI has been done, I'm not convinced that Penny's shoulder is sound, especially considering he was a first-half warrior in 2006/2007 and has a 5.88 ERA this year. His strikeouts are down, and his walks, hits and HR ratios are up. All signs point to an ineffective second-half pitcher, though at the same time, perhaps the rest did him some good. If you're a gambler and feel like buying low, do yourself a favor and don't activate Penny until we see how he does in his first start back.
Shawn Hill, Washington - The epitome of brittle, Hill has been about as healthy as an asthmatic asbestos remover the last couple years, and he's on DL stint No. 2 this year, this time with a forearm strain. Hill had a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in the 97 innings when healthy last year, so we know he can pitch. The Nationals believe his latest injury is not serious, and Hill should be back sometime this week. He's worth plugging in NL-only lineups right away, though mixed leaguers will want to see a couple solid healthy starts before buying in.
Brandon McCarthy, Texas - The McCarthy/John Danks swap isn't quite as bad as the awful Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka deal, but it's yet another reason why the Rangers continue to toil as an AL West also-ran. When he's been healthy, McCarthy has been terrible for the Rangers, so it's hard to be optimistic about his imminent return.
Shaun Marcum, Toronto - Marcum is scheduled to return after the All-Star break from a strained elbow. With a 2.65 ERA and 7.8 K/9 (up nearly a full point over 2007), Marcum was in the midst of a breakout year, so feel free to activate him right away. He'll replace John Parrish in the rotation unless A.J. Burnett is traded.
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels - It's looking more and more like Escobar is done for the year. Even if he were to return, it wouldn't be until August at best, and the rotation's No. 5 starter, Joe Saunders, has 12 wins, so Escobar would be looking at returning in middle relief.
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland - Will return after the All-Star break from his hip injury and will replace either Jeremy Sowers or (gulp) Jeff Weaver. With an ugly 23:38 K:BB this year, Carmona has been a huge disappointment after nearly winning the AL Cy Young a year ago, but if you've held onto him this long, you have to roll with him as his trade value is beyond low.
Prospects On the Way Up?
Clay Buchholz, Boston - A 2.47 ERA in nine Triple-A starts gets Buchholz the call back to Boston. He'll start Friday against the Orioles and should be picked up in all leagues where available. Justin Masterson goes to Triple-A and will work out of the bullpen.
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota - He's 6-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 45:9 K:BB over 42 2/3 innings since June 1, so his return to Minnesota has to be imminent. Livan Hernandez (6.84 ERA since May 17) and Glen Perkins are the most likely candidates for Liriano to replace.
David Price, Tampa Bay - Price is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA and 55:14 K:BB in nine minor league starts. Probably replaces Edwin Jackson sometime in August and would be an immediate play in all leagues.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers - Demoted to make room for Hiroki Kuroda's return from the DL and to work on his command, Kershaw will be back sometime in the second half. Allowed two runs on four hits over six innings in first start back in Double-A.
Ian Kennedy, New York Yankees - Hasn't pitched since June 28, so not sure if there's been a setback with his strained lat. Assuming Kennedy is healthy soon, Darrell Rasner's (1-6, 7.05 ERA since May) rotation spot could be his for the taking.
Possibly Changing Zip Codes
We've already seen CC Sabathia and Rich Harden change leagues this week, so which pitchers could be on the move next? Here are a few who could be available.
Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers - Lowe's been a constant in the Dodgers' rotation since 2005, but he's a free agent after this year and is represented by Scott Boras. The Dodgers could plug Clayton Kershaw in Lowe's place and would still have Eric Stults, Chan Ho Park and prospect James McDonald for depth.
Joe Blanton, Oakland - He's fat and less than average, but Blanton eats innings (cue buffet line joke here) and is under control through 2010. He's certainly going to be available. A dealing of Blanton would probably result in Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Braden joining the rotation.
A.J. Burnett, Toronto - His opt-out clause has the Blue Jays looking to deal the enigmatic Burnett, but as bad as he's been for the most part this year, is he going to risk foregoing $24 million by opting out? Seems doubtful. David Purcey would be next in line for the Blue Jays.
Greg Maddux, San Diego - Would probably only approve a deal to a West Coast team unless the Braves or Cubs get involved. It's hard to see the Padres helping out the Dodgers, and the Angels' rotation is full, so Maddux probably stays where he is.
Randy Wolf, San Diego - Might be a nice, cheap rental for a contender. Value probably takes a hit if he's dealt. Wade LeBlanc or Will Inman would replace Wolf/Maddux, with Inman being more desirable.
Erik Bedard, Seattle - Return won't be as great as what Seattle gave up, but this is one guy the Mariners need to sell (among others), so look for them to field offers.
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox - It took a while for the former No. 4 overall pick to reach his potential, but perhaps now he'll be regarded as something other than "that guy the Phillies took instead of Mark Teixeira." The reason Floyd is on this list: the White Sox are loaded with pitchers and could use him to upgrade the bullpen. Lance Broadway would replace Floyd or whomever the White Sox deal, if anyone.
Paul Byrd, Cleveland - Byrd has been admittedly terrible, but a couple good starts this month and teams not willing to pay the price for the likes Erik Bedard might roll the dice on a pitcher who won 15 last year. With CC Sabathia already gone, a Byrd deal would likely result in both Jeremy Sowers and Jeff Weaver in the rotation. Scary.
Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati - Signed through 2010, and the Reds would probably love to get out from under that one. Problem there, of course, is Arroyo's 5.82 ERA, though he does have a couple solid starts recently. Still, the Reds should listen to offers for most anyone on their roster not named Bruce, Cueto, Votto, Volquez or Phillips.
Aaron Harang, Cincinnati - Rumored to be on the block, though that's hard to believe. Still, should anyone overwhelm the Reds, they'll be getting the best 3-10 pitcher in the game.
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|  | Chicago Cubs NewsNews » Mound musings: Carmona to return |
| Mound musings: Carmona to return | |
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 Traditionally, around the All-Star break is the time where teams wind up activating guys off the disabled list, consider promoting prospects and generally look to solidify their 25-man rosters heading into the second half. This year is no exception. Players like Josh Johnson (Tommy John surgery) are coming off the DL, David Price is biding his time in Double-A and the Brewers have added a hefty lefty to form perhaps baseball's best 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. This week we'll look at a few pitchers coming off the DL, examine baseball's top pitching prospects who have a chance at seeing the big leagues later this year and speculate on which pitchers could be on the market and the resulting fantasy implications.From Disabled to Enabled?Josh Johnson, Florida - Johnson will return to the mound for the first time since July 2, 2007, this Thursday as he gets the nod against the Dodgers. While rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Johnson had a 3.68 ERA in five minor league starts, showing surprising command with a 23:5 K:BB in 29 1/3 innings. While we fully expect Johnson to experience the normal highs and lows faced by Tommy John survivors, his progress has been encouraging. Johnson's upside (career 3.50 ERA, 7.6 K/9) makes him worth watching, but he's probably best targeted in keeper leagues by owners willing to wait until sometime in 2009 for him to be 100 percent. Micah Owings, Arizona - A lower back injury has prevented Owings from starting since June 27, but he's expected to get the nod Wednesday. After starting the year 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA, Owings is 2-7 with a 6.21 ERA, though I'm somewhat optimistic given his 7.7 K/9 during that poor run. Max Scherzer is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, but if he recovers quickly, Owings' job could be in jeopardy if his results don't start matching his peripherals. Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Sanchez had surgery for a torn labrum in June 2007, and it appears he's nearing a return. Sanchez, of course, gained notoriety for both his inclusion in the Hanley Ramirez trade and especially for the no-hitter as a rookie, but that was two years ago. Even in his rookie year, Sanchez's 2.83 ERA came with a very low BABIP (.245), mediocre 73:46 K:BB and a 5.8 K/9. Toss in labrum surgery that could affect his velocity, and we're much more optimistic on teammate's Josh Johnson's recovery than Sanchez's. Speculate on Sanchez in keeper leagues, but don't expect much in 2008. Mike Hampton, Atlanta - Space prevents me from detailing Hampton's medical history, but suffice to say, it's lengthy. Hampton hasn't pitched in a major league game since 2005 and even that year, it was for just 12 starts. He really hasn't been relevant from a fantasy perspective since 2000, his free-agent year that led to perhaps the worst contract in baseball history (eight years, $121 million), so it's hard to get too excited about his five scoreless innings in High-A recently. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis - Like Josh Johnson above, Carpenter underwent Tommy John surgery last July, but he's a little further behind and looking at an August return, at best. Carpenter had a setback in May, but appears back on track, though it's hard to see the Cardinals rushing him back if he's not 100 percent healthy. St. Louis is chasing the Cubs in the NL Central with the Brewers close behind, but with the huge contract extension doled out to Carpenter before last year, look for the Cardinals to be very careful with their investment. At some point, I think he'll be shut down. Chris Young, San Diego - Scary skull fracture injury and a resulting surgery to repair a deviated septum likely have Young out until late July. You figure his arm will be fine once he's ready to return, but his psyche? To be determined. Given his history, Young is certainly worth owning in most leagues, but given that he wasn't pitching all that well (4.50 ERA and 30 BB in 51 innings) before the injury, success is by no means guaranteed. Brad Penny, Los Angeles Dodgers - Out since June 15 with shoulder tendinitis, Penny experienced some soreness in a recent simulated game, so he's expected to be out through the All-Star break. Given that no MRI has been done, I'm not convinced that Penny's shoulder is sound, especially considering he was a first-half warrior in 2006/2007 and has a 5.88 ERA this year. His strikeouts are down, and his walks, hits and HR ratios are up. All signs point to an ineffective second-half pitcher, though at the same time, perhaps the rest did him some good. If you're a gambler and feel like buying low, do yourself a favor and don't activate Penny until we see how he does in his first start back. Shawn Hill, Washington - The epitome of brittle, Hill has been about as healthy as an asthmatic asbestos remover the last couple years, and he's on DL stint No. 2 this year, this time with a forearm strain. Hill had a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in the 97 innings when healthy last year, so we know he can pitch. The Nationals believe his latest injury is not serious, and Hill should be back sometime this week. He's worth plugging in NL-only lineups right away, though mixed leaguers will want to see a couple solid healthy starts before buying in. Brandon McCarthy, Texas - The McCarthy/John Danks swap isn't quite as bad as the awful Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka deal, but it's yet another reason why the Rangers continue to toil as an AL West also-ran. When he's been healthy, McCarthy has been terrible for the Rangers, so it's hard to be optimistic about his imminent return. Shaun Marcum, Toronto - Marcum is scheduled to return after the All-Star break from a strained elbow. With a 2.65 ERA and 7.8 K/9 (up nearly a full point over 2007), Marcum was in the midst of a breakout year, so feel free to activate him right away. He'll replace John Parrish in the rotation unless A.J. Burnett is traded. Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels - It's looking more and more like Escobar is done for the year. Even if he were to return, it wouldn't be until August at best, and the rotation's No. 5 starter, Joe Saunders, has 12 wins, so Escobar would be looking at returning in middle relief. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland - Will return after the All-Star break from his hip injury and will replace either Jeremy Sowers or (gulp) Jeff Weaver. With an ugly 23:38 K:BB this year, Carmona has been a huge disappointment after nearly winning the AL Cy Young a year ago, but if you've held onto him this long, you have to roll with him as his trade value is beyond low. Prospects On the Way Up?Clay Buchholz, Boston - A 2.47 ERA in nine Triple-A starts gets Buchholz the call back to Boston. He'll start Friday against the Orioles and should be picked up in all leagues where available. Justin Masterson goes to Triple-A and will work out of the bullpen. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota - He's 6-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 45:9 K:BB over 42 2/3 innings since June 1, so his return to Minnesota has to be imminent. Livan Hernandez (6.84 ERA since May 17) and Glen Perkins are the most likely candidates for Liriano to replace. David Price, Tampa Bay - Price is 7-0 with a 1.68 ERA and 55:14 K:BB in nine minor league starts. Probably replaces Edwin Jackson sometime in August and would be an immediate play in all leagues. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers - Demoted to make room for Hiroki Kuroda's return from the DL and to work on his command, Kershaw will be back sometime in the second half. Allowed two runs on four hits over six innings in first start back in Double-A. Ian Kennedy, New York Yankees - Hasn't pitched since June 28, so not sure if there's been a setback with his strained lat. Assuming Kennedy is healthy soon, Darrell Rasner's (1-6, 7.05 ERA since May) rotation spot could be his for the taking. Possibly Changing Zip CodesWe've already seen CC Sabathia and Rich Harden change leagues this week, so which pitchers could be on the move next? Here are a few who could be available. Derek Lowe, Los Angeles Dodgers - Lowe's been a constant in the Dodgers' rotation since 2005, but he's a free agent after this year and is represented by Scott Boras. The Dodgers could plug Clayton Kershaw in Lowe's place and would still have Eric Stults, Chan Ho Park and prospect James McDonald for depth. Joe Blanton, Oakland - He's fat and less than average, but Blanton eats innings (cue buffet line joke here) and is under control through 2010. He's certainly going to be available. A dealing of Blanton would probably result in Gio Gonzalez or Dallas Braden joining the rotation. A.J. Burnett, Toronto - His opt-out clause has the Blue Jays looking to deal the enigmatic Burnett, but as bad as he's been for the most part this year, is he going to risk foregoing $24 million by opting out? Seems doubtful. David Purcey would be next in line for the Blue Jays. Greg Maddux, San Diego - Would probably only approve a deal to a West Coast team unless the Braves or Cubs get involved. It's hard to see the Padres helping out the Dodgers, and the Angels' rotation is full, so Maddux probably stays where he is. Randy Wolf, San Diego - Might be a nice, cheap rental for a contender. Value probably takes a hit if he's dealt. Wade LeBlanc or Will Inman would replace Wolf/Maddux, with Inman being more desirable. Erik Bedard, Seattle - Return won't be as great as what Seattle gave up, but this is one guy the Mariners need to sell (among others), so look for them to field offers. Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox - It took a while for the former No. 4 overall pick to reach his potential, but perhaps now he'll be regarded as something other than "that guy the Phillies took instead of Mark Teixeira." The reason Floyd is on this list: the White Sox are loaded with pitchers and could use him to upgrade the bullpen. Lance Broadway would replace Floyd or whomever the White Sox deal, if anyone. Paul Byrd, Cleveland - Byrd has been admittedly terrible, but a couple good starts this month and teams not willing to pay the price for the likes Erik Bedard might roll the dice on a pitcher who won 15 last year. With CC Sabathia already gone, a Byrd deal would likely result in both Jeremy Sowers and Jeff Weaver in the rotation. Scary. Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati - Signed through 2010, and the Reds would probably love to get out from under that one. Problem there, of course, is Arroyo's 5.82 ERA, though he does have a couple solid starts recently. Still, the Reds should listen to offers for most anyone on their roster not named Bruce, Cueto, Votto, Volquez or Phillips. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati - Rumored to be on the block, though that's hard to believe. Still, should anyone overwhelm the Reds, they'll be getting the best 3-10 pitcher in the game. Author:Fox Sports Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com Added: July 11, 2008
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