HURT

Ian Snell, Pittsburgh - A 26-year-old coming off a 3.79-ERA, 177-strikeout season is a pitcher I invest in. Like a lot of dot-coms in the early part of the century, it looks like the bubble has burst on Snell. He had a 4.93 ERA at April's end, but has 6.00-plus ERA marks in each of the subsequent months. I guess if you had to look for a sign of encouragement, you could point to Snell's home/road splits (4.02 ERA at PNC Park and 7.83 on the road). He can't continue to be Ervin Santana circa-2007-like on the road, can he?

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland - The Red Sox hit everyone last year, so I wasn't too worried about Carmona's beatdowns in the playoffs. He finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2007 and at age 24, looked primed for a solid 2008. A 4.46 ERA, injuries and a 31:47 K:BB later, I was obviously wrong. I'm not ready to write him off completely, but neither is he an every week starter for any of my teams.

Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs - Fortunately, I elected to extend Hill's contract "only" one year to $10 in my NL-only keeper league, but regardless, he's been a complete bust. He had a 4.12 ERA in five starts for the Cubs before being demoted, but it was more the 15:18 K:BB that the notoriously-impatient Lou Piniella couldn't stomach any longer. Hill has remained in the minors courtesy of a 5.85 ERA and 57:44 K:BB and with Rich Harden in the fold, there's no need for his services this year. I'd probably roll the dice on him for 2009, but he's going to have to win a rotation spot in the spring and that's no given, especially if Piniella's still the manager.

Aaron Harang, Cincinnati - Even when Harang was 3-10 through the end of June, I was still touting him as a buy-low based on a 96:25 K:BB, but it's now probably time to cut bait. He looked awful in his first start back from a forearm injury and with the Reds out of playoff contention, shutting him down wouldn't be a bad idea for the Reds to consider. Dusty Baker - my fantasy team thanks you for your ability to ruin good pitchers.

Franklin Morales, Colorado - I could probably hook you up with some Liriano comparison links if you're interested. Morales, though, took all of five starts and a 9:17 K:BB before being sent down to Triple-A Colorado Springs where he hasn't been much better (5.44 ERA, 70:69 K:BB). We've seen Ubaldo Jimenez figure it out this year, so roll the dice on Morales if you need pitching in your keeper league and can wait until 2009.

Clay Buchholz, Boston - No, I didn't expect another no-hitter or two this year, but 15 wins and a 3.75 ERA? Certainly a reasonable March projection I'd say. So, seeing my $15 (in one mixed league) pitcher at 2-8 with a 6.32 ERA and 37 walks in 72 2/3 innings is startling. That said, Buchholz is exactly the type of pitcher keeper leaguers should be running out to acquire right now. His value is in the gutter and his upside is still considerable. Focus on the 8.7 K/9 and look for better things in 2009.

Micah Owings, Arizona - At least he can go the Rick Ankiel/Adam Loewen route if this whole "pitching thing" doesn't work out. Owings started off like gangbusters this year, going 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his first four starts before going 2-9 with an ERA so high my calculator can't handle the math. Owings is now in Triple-A, having been surpassed by Yusmeiro Petit and Max Scherzer in the pecking order. So much for those warm fuzzies I had with my $1 Owings in April. It sounds like Owings is headed to Cincinnati in the Adam Dunn deal, so perhaps a change of scenery will help.

Helped

Ricky Nolasco, Florida - I took a flier on Nolasco at $2 in my NL-only league after a couple quality starts in May. Little did I know that he'd become an invaluable every week starter for me in short order. Nolasco has notched 12 quality starts in his last 16 outings and his 121:35 K:BB and 7.3 K/9 are well above his pre-2008 marks of 110:50 and 6.1 K/9. I'm not quite convinced he's this good, but a solid No. 3? Sure.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers - In one non-keeper league, I was a bit sketchy on Kershaw's prospects upon his return for a second stint in the Dodgers' rotation, but fortunately I decided to hold and gamble on the upside. He's rewarded me with one run allowed over his last three starts (19 innings). It's not a stretch to think that he and Chad Billingsley will be the Dodgers' top two starters the rest of the way. Koufax and Drysdale? Probably a stretch. Valenzuela/Welch? Perhaps.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland - Lee hasn't quite been able to maintain his 0.67 ERA, but after trading for his services in April in one league, he's been a huge asset. At 16-2 with a 2.45 ERA, he's now headed toward the AL Cy Young award thanks to an incredible 128:22 K:BB and (unsustainable?) 0.39 HR/9. Lee has to be a common component of more than one first place fantasy team out there.

Matt Garza, Tampa Bay - A 7.59 ERA in two August starts probably leaves Garza as a mix-and-match guy in 12-team mixed leagues, but he has provided a great return for fantasy owners and the Rays this year. Garza's 6.0 K/9 isn't worthy of elite starter status by any means, but considering the relatively low expectations I had for him this year pitching in the AL East, it's hard to argue with a 3.88 ERA. Going forward, I like him quite a bit and think Garza could settle in as a No. 2 caliber starter in time.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox - Danks has nine starts in which he's allowed one or fewer runs and either picked up a loss or no-decision, so the lack of run support is an obvious contributor to his so-so 9-5 record. Still, Danks' 3.18 ERA, improved command and an improved strikeout rate makes the White Sox the clear winners of the Brandon McCarthy deal. I always like to roll the dice on lefties with good stuff, and despite the home park, Danks has paid off well for me.

Randy Johnson, Arizona - The strikeouts are down this year, but in his last six starts, the Big Unit is 5-1 with a 1.58 ERA. The remarkable thing about Johnson this year is that he's on pace to make 30 starts at age 44 coming off major back surgery. His owners have received a nice return on their investment.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - I admit, I was completely wrong here. In one dynasty league, I cut Dempster and took a rather large cap hit prior to the season when I heard he'd no longer be the closer. Considering Dempster's last stint as a starter was the 2003 season in which he went 3-7 with a 6.54 ERA in 23 games (20 starts) for the Reds, it seemed like a good decision at the time, but not now. I do have Dempster in a couple other leagues, so I am reaping some benefits from his 13-5, 2.92 season however. For the rest of this year, figure Dempster's ERA rising to the 3.25 range thanks to a .265 BABIP and occasional command issues, but considering he's allowed more than four runs in a start just once and more than three just three times this year, it's past time to become a believer.

Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers - With a 3.05 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched as a starter last year, Billingsley was a popular pick in drafts this spring and for good reason. The upside was tremendous, he finished strong, and Billingsley was universally-pegged as a future ace. This year, he hasn't disappointed. He ranks ninth in the NL with a 3.07 ERA and second in strikeouts with 157. He's also generating more groundballs (1.6 G/F vs. last year's 1.2) and he's cut his walk rate from 3.9 BB/9 to 3.6. at age 24, he's only going to get better.

Bullpen Notes

With C.J. Wilson (elbow) out for the year, Eddie Guardado has been a popular pick-up in all leagues, but I've got my on former chair-thrower Frank Francisco. At age 28, and with an 11.0 K/9, the Rangers would be well-advised to give him the ball in the ninth inning at some point this year as they look toward 2009. ... Joel Hanrahan has converted three of four save opportunities this month, and considering the lack of competition and Hanrahan's 10.1 K/9, he should be in line for a nice finish. With the Nationals unlikely to spend the money to bring in a veteran closer next year, Hanrahan should be a nice (and cheap) keeper for fantasy owners next year. ... Brandon Lyon has allowed four earned runs in two innings over his last two appearances, both non-save situations. Still, it's going to take more than that for Jon Rauch owners to start rejoicing. ... Mets 2007 first-rounder Eddie Kunz could get a save or two until Billy Wagner (forearm) returns on Monday. Kunz is worth picking up in keeper leagues and in deeper leagues this year as a handcuff to Wagner. ... The Chris Perez era has yet to officially begin, but he's far and away the best option to close in St. Louis until Adam Wainwright returns from a finger injury, perhaps as early as this weekend. ... Trevor Hoffman hasn't struck out more than a hitter an inning over a full season since 2002, but he's on track to do so this year with a 40:7 K:BB in 36 1/3 innings. More "Hells Bells" in 2009? Stay tuned. ... Huston Street may be out as closer in Oakland. He's allowed five runs over his last two appearances and has a 4.65 ERA on the year. Quisenberry clone Brad Ziegler could be next in line, though I like Joey Devine long-term. ... Joel Zumaya won't be allowed to go on consecutive days, but he should still have some value as a part-time closer this year. Todd Jones is due back Friday from a shoulder injury and could factor in the mix as well despite a 5.05 ERA and 3.1 K/9. ... With no one else emerging in the Cleveland pen, Jensen Lewis could pick up a few saves the rest of the way. He picked up his first on 8/8 and could share opportunities with Masahide Kobayashi and Rafael Perez despite a 1.55 WHIP. ... Look for Kerry Wood to get the next save opportunity in Chicago.

Article first appeared 8/13/08