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Success starts at top


Success starts at top
Leadoff hitters are best identified early and developed at the minor-league level. That's the reality behind the seemingly endless search for reliable ones in the big leagues, including on both sides of Chicago .

White Sox general manager Ken Williams hinted at this truth of the modern game recently.

A reporter asked him if he was going to switch his focus to finding a leadoff man after acquiring multiple prospects from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez trade.

"Everyone wants to talk about the leadoff role," Williams said. "If someone wants to give me names ... I can play fantasy Baseball like anybody else, but there just aren't people out there."

Only 15 of the 30 teams had regular leadoff men throughout last season, and of these 15 players that had 500-plus plate appearances in the leadoff spot only Johnny Damon and the Sox's Orlando Cabrera were transients. The other 13 were with the teams that brought them to the big leagues.

Just a glance at this list reveals the value of having a proven leadoff man.

Ten of the 15 teams on it had winning records, including both World Series teams -- Philadelphia (Jimmy Rollins) and Tampa Bay (Akinori Iwamura) -- the team with the most victories in the majors -- the Angels (Chone Figgins) -- and three other playoff teams -- Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury), Milwaukee (Rickie Weeks) and the White Sox. Include Alfonso Soriano, who fell just short of 500 plate appearances in the leadoff spot and you have seven of 16 teams with true leadoff hitters in the playoffs.

Those teams finished an average of 11 games above .500 -- a nifty trick considering that Baltimore (Brian Roberts) and Seattle (Ichiro Suzuki) are on the list.

There were 61 hitters who got at least 100 at-bats in the No. 1 slot last season. Their on-base averages ranged from Rafael Furcal's .434 to Corey Patterson's .217.

Only five of those 61 filed for free agency after the season: Jerry Hairston Jr., David Eckstein, Scott Podsednik, Cabrera and Patterson. Beyond the Orioles' Roberts, who is expected to be shopped this week at the winter meetings, the list of leadoff candidates possibly available in trades is lukewarm -- Figgins (maybe), Weeks (at a big price), Nyjer Morgan, Josh Anderson (whom the White Sox passed on in the Vazquez trade), Willy Taveras (.299 on-base percentage in 378 at-bats) and Juan Pierre (.293, 268).

Despite the unhappiness over Soriano, his .350 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot matched Iwamura's, which ranked 32nd among the 61 guys on our long list. The Cubs ranked 19th of the 30 big-league teams in leadoff on-base percentage and matched Baltimore in leadoff OPS, ranked seventh in the majors.

You can see why Lou Piniella has spent two years acting like this crisis exists strictly in the heads of Cubs fans.

The White Sox haven't developed a leadoff man since Ray Durham. It's unclear who they envision filling that role in 2009.

Alexei Ramirez shows signs of being a high-average hitter but rarely walks (18 in 515 plate appearances last season). Jerry Owens has a .360 career OBP in the minors and intriguing speed but is no lock for the center-field job. Rookie second baseman Chris Getz, whose 2008 momentum was stopped by a broken bone in his left hand, is another potential get-on-base guy.

The Sox appear to have few other strong leadoff candidates in their farm system. The best hopes might be 2008 draft picks Jordan Danks, a center fielder, and Tyler Kuhn, a shortstop.

Like Patterson, Felix Pie once seemed like a long-term leadoff candidate for the Cubs. But his development has stalled, both as a baserunner and hitter. If only he had developed his tools like Sam Fuld, the fringe prospect who at age 27 has a .429 on-base percentage hitting leadoff for Aragua in the Venezuelan league.

There aren't a lot of strong candidates coming behind Pie and Fuld. The best might be shortstop Darwin Barney, who helped Oregon State win two NCAA titles. The Cubs were thinking leadoff when they added speed in the 2008 draft, with outfielder Tony Campana (22 steals in 24 games in rookie ball) and infielders Logan Watkins and Josh Harrison forming a pool of candidates.

The best bet, however, is 18-year-old Korean Hak-Ju Lee, whom some consider the best talent ever from his country. He's a blazer whose hitting and skills at shortstop earned him a seven-figure bonus. He will be watched closely when he takes the field for the first time as a pro, probably next June at the rookie level.

Cabrera's call: A glut of middle infielders on the market forces Orlando Cabrera at least to consider accepting the White Sox's offer of salary arbitration. The deadline to do so is Sunday, and if Cabrera takes the offer -- made only to vest for two compensation picks in next year's draft -- he will be the Sox's property, whether they want him or not.

"Alexei Ramirez is going to be the shortstop," Williams said. "One of the kids is going to be the second baseman. I don't think Orlando wants to come back here and be a utility guy."

No, but where's he going to go? There were five shortstop vacancies at the start of the off-season, but two were filled with St. Louis' trade for Khalil Greene and San Francisco's pending signing of Furcal. Detroit is believed to be close to trading for Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson and Cesar Izturis is considered a front-runner in Baltimore. That would leave only the Dodgers (who some believe also had targeted Wilson).

The pool of available shortstops includes Cabrera, Omar Vizquel, Adam Everett, Eckstein and Julio Lugo. If Oakland completes the Furcal deal, it will look to deal Bobby Crosby. Can Cabrera find a multi-year deal in this landscape?

- - -

Whispers

Don't be surprised if Ron Santo finally gets his Hall of Fame validation on Monday. Revised balloting procedures by the living Hall of Famers give him his best chance ever -- really. ... Junichi Tazawa turned down more money from Texas to sign with the Red Sox. The 22-year-old right-hander is the first prospect to go directly from Japan to the United States without passing through the Nippon Professional Baseball league, prompting charges that teams dealing with Tazawa were violating a "gentlemen's agreement" between countries. MLB officials deny such an agreement existed but even the Yankees' Brian Cashman says he took a "hands off" approach with Tazawa because of the situation. ... CC Sabathia continues to bide his time waiting to see if the Angels, Giants or Dodgers will add to his viable options -- currently only known to be the Yankees or a return to Milwaukee. ... Andy Pettitte seems intent on going back to the Yankees, even though he'd have to take a pay cut. ... The Twins are stepping up their efforts to trade 2008 disappointment Delmon Young, with new Colorado reliever Huston Street on their wish list. ... If the A's sign Rafael Furcal and Randy Johnson, they could be 2009 contenders. They're also likely to add a hitter at first base or DH. ... David Ortiz says Alex Rodriguez (a New York native raised in Miami) wants to play for the Dominican Republic in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Wonder how Aramis Ramirez feels about that?

progers@tribune.com

Playing hardball: For the latest on the Cubs, Sox and Baseball's off-season, go to chicago!tribune.com/hardball


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: December 7, 2008

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