 First, the Milwaukee Brewers put the rest of the National League on notice by acquiring coveted lefty and reigning AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia. Then the Chicago Cubs did the same by nabbing Oakland ace Rich Harden. Oh, and let's not forget that the St. Louis Cardinals still occupy second place in the division and narrowly lead the NL wild-card chase. So the matter at hand is what this flurry of activity means for what's become one of the toughest divisions in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have a 94.8 percent chance of making the postseason, while the Brewers and Cardinals have, respectively, a 59.0 percent chance and a 25.4 percent chance of getting there. Obviously, Baseball Prospectus sees the Cubs as mortal locks for the postseason, and they see the Cards as having a much worse chance than the Brewers. Now let's take a look at another Prospectus tool called "Third-Order Standings." Third-Order Standings lays out what the standings should be once you correct for runs scored and runs allowed at the component level and strength of schedule. Anyhow, according to Third-Order Standings, the Cubs should lead the division over the Brewers by 6.5 games, and the Cardinals should be 7.5 games behind the Cubs. Of course, these indicators don't account for the recent trades. Must-read:- Whitlock: Jennings' Europe-a-dope
- Perry: What CC, Harden deals mean
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Must-see:- Rosenthal on Harden deal
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Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: July 9, 2008 |
